The talent is a top-five roster. No. 4 in the talent composite in our snapshot, built around Arch Manning; the season is a test of whether a rebuilt defense and two new lead backs gel before the nation's second-hardest schedule arrives, which is Week 2. The market treats Texas as a playoff lock (−200 CFP at the August compile, −180 by the Sept 3 freeze) and co-second choice for the national title (+650, tied with Oregon, behind only Ohio State's +450), yet sets the win total at just 9.5. Those two prices together are a statement about the slate, not the roster: eight of twelve opponents sit in the SP+ preseason top 20, and No. 1 Ohio State visits Austin on September 12.
The offense returns 85% of its passing value and upgraded its weakest room; the defense lost four of the six draft picks and the coordinator who built it.
Honesty note: season expectations here are anchored to the market (win total, futures). The SP+ expected-wins number is reference-only: our backtest shows the SP+ margin model losing to the market.
Record caveat: 2025's 10–3 came with a +14 turnover margin, historically about one win of flattery on the record, not on the SP+ projection. The full argument lives in Last Season in Review.
The second-hardest schedule in FBS by average opponent preseason SP+ (No. 2 of 138, computed across every team's slate, only Arkansas's is harder, and Texas is the lone top-ten slate with no FCS breather): nine SP+ top-50 opponents, and only one of the four hardest dates. Ohio State, in Austin; the other three are trips to Tennessee, LSU, and Texas A&M. Win probabilities are computed from preseason SP+ (points better than average, schedule-adjusted): the ratings gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, converted to a win chance using how far our model's projections have historically missed (details in the Data Dictionary). Treat them as a shape, not picks. Shaded rows are coin flips (40–60%).
| Wk | Date | Opponent (SP+ rank) | Site | SP+ margin | Win probability |
|---|
Movement through the 2026 draft and portal, quantified against the 2025 snapshot. Returning production is the share of last season's total play value (PPA) that's back on the roster, the forward-looking stat with the best year-over-year track record. Definitions live in the Data Dictionary.
Rushing gets no bar: the share computes to 126%, more returning value than the 2025 team netted, because the departing backs' combined PPA was negative. The plain fact behind the broken number: nearly all the rushing value that returns is Manning's.
| Player | Unit | How | What walked out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hill Jr. | LB | Draft, Rd 2 (Titans) | The second level's tone-setter. 70 tackles, second on the team. |
| Malik Muhammad | CB | Draft, Rd 4 (Bears) | Boundary corner in a secondary that ranked top-third nationally in playmaking. |
| Trey Moore | EDGE | Draft, Rd 4 (Dolphins) | The pass-rush bookend opposite Colin Simmons. |
| Michael Taaffe | S | Draft, Rd 5 (Dolphins) | The secondary's communicator and captain. |
| DJ Campbell | RG | Draft, Rd 6 (Dolphins) | Starting guard on an already-below-average run-blocking line. |
| Jack Endries | TE | Draft, Rd 7 (Bengals) | Starting tight end. |
| DeAndre Moore Jr. | WR | Portal | 31.7 total PPA. Texas's No. 2 skill player by total value in 2025. |
| Parker Livingstone | WR | Portal | 19.2 total PPA, the No. 4 target. |
| Jaime Ffrench | WR | Portal | Four games and one catch in 2025 before transferring to Michigan. |
| Liona Lefau | LB | Portal | Two-year starter at linebacker, to Colorado. A real loss, not just depth. |
| Player | Unit | From | Role / honors (2025 numbers live in the spotlights) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raleek Brown | RB | Arizona State | All-Big 12, the explosive-play half of the new backfield. |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB | NC State | First-team All-ACC, the three-down, pass-catching half. |
| Cam Coleman | WR | Auburn | Former five-star; the Tigers' lead outside receiver, now the projected X. |
| Rasheem Biles | LB | Pittsburgh | Second-team All-ACC, the answer at Anthony Hill Jr.'s spot. |
| + 18 more | , | 22-man portal class | Incl. OL Laurence Seymore and Melvin Siani, CB Bo Mascoe, DL Ian Geffrard, TE Michael Masunas, K Gianni Spetic (Memphis), P Mac Chiumento (Florida State), marked ▲ on the depth chart below. |
The players most likely to decide the season, six spotlights and the one battle that decides the offense. Stat lines are verified against the committed CFBD snapshots; every highlight reel is a verified link with its channel named.
Fourth year in the program, second as the starter. Everything else on this page is arranged around him.
The last returning star of the 2025 front, now the face of a defense that lost its coordinator and four draft picks around him.
Steps from 1B to WR1 with DeAndre Moore Jr. gone, the returning heart of a deep-ball offense.
The marquee offensive portal add: a former five-star who carried Auburn's passing game as its lead outside receiver, now the projected X across from Wingo.
Passed on the NFL draft to return, and is now the only returning starter in a secondary that lost Muhammad and Taaffe, the new scheme's on-field brain.
The marquee defensive portal add, brought in to fill Anthony Hill Jr.'s spot at the second level.
High value-per-play on small 2025 samples, plus an opened door, the profile that historically precedes a leap.
| Player | Unit | 2025 line | Why the arrow points up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaliq Lockett | WR | 5 catches, 47 yds, 1 TD · 1.17 PPA/play | Blue-chip 2025 signee (five-star by some services, four by others) finally "playing up to his recruiting background" per camp reporting; three receivers ahead of him left. |
| Emaree Winston | TE | 2 catches, 47 yds (23.5 per catch) | In the TE rotation with Jack Endries drafted (listed behind Townsend on the latest two-deep). The case is opportunity, his sample (one CFBD-graded play, worth +2.4 PPA) is too small to mean anything on its own. |
| Lance Jackson | DL | 16 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 hurries in rotation | Sophomore stepping into a starting front-line role in the reshuffled Muschamp front. |
Projected, not official. Base two-deep from Ourlads (updated Aug 26), with conflicts against the Aug 8 texasfootballdepthchart.com projection flagged in the notes, where the two disagree, the battle is probably still live. Ourlads also names the schemes: "Pro Spread" offense, "Multiple 4-2-5" defense, the first documented shape of the Muschamp unit. Reconciled at the Week 1 freeze (Sept 3): OTF's final depth chart snapshot (Sept 1) corroborates this two-deep at every starter spot, and the formerly single-source names (Cryer, Townsend, Bishop) are now multi-source. ▲ = arrived via the portal this offseason · ★ = true freshman.
| Position | Projected two-deep | Battle / conflict |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Arch Manning · KJ Lacey | Resolved at the freeze: Lacey holds the No. 2 job on OTF's final depth chart snapshot (Sept 1). |
| RB | Hollywood Smothers ▲ · Raleek Brown ▲ | Effectively co-starters, see the battle card above. |
| WR (X) | Cam Coleman ▲ · Sterling Berkhalter | , |
| WR (Z) | Ryan Wingo · Jermaine Bishop Jr. | Lockett pushing for real snaps per camp buzz. |
| WR (slot) | Emmett Mosley V · Daylan McCutcheon | , |
| TE (Y) | Spencer Shannon · Michael Masunas ▲ | , |
| TE (H) | Nick Townsend · Emaree Winston | Flipped since Aug 8, when Winston was listed first. |
| OL (L→R) | Trevor Goosby · Laurence Seymore ▲ · Connor Robertson · Brandon Baker · Melvin Siani ▲ Jordan Coleman · Jaydon Chatman · Jackson Christian · Paris Patterson Jr. ▲ · Andre Cojoe | The whole line realigned between the Aug 8 and Aug 26 charts (same five names, different order). At the freeze the order held: OTF's final snapshot confirms this five, Goosby was cleared at Thursday's presser, and Cojoe settles in as the swing tackle. |
| Position | Projected two-deep | Battle / conflict |
|---|---|---|
| JACK | Colin Simmons · Colton Vasek | , |
| DE | Lance Jackson · Zina Umeozulu | , |
| NT | Ian Geffrard ▲ · Maraad Watson | , |
| DT | Hero Kanu · Justus Terry ★ | , |
| WLB | Rasheem Biles ▲ · Darius Snow | , |
| MLB | Justin Cryer ▲ · Rocky Cummings | New to the two-deep since Aug 8, and the MIKE looks scrimmage-won. Confirmed at the freeze: Cryer starts, and Muschamp handed him the green dot (the defense's play-call communicator), per OTF game-week reporting. |
| SLB | Brad Spence · Markus Boswell | Ty'Anthony Smith was dismissed from the program in late August for "conduct detrimental to the team," confirmed publicly by Sarkisian (ESPN, The Daily Texan). Spence and Boswell hold the spot, and the room is thin behind them. |
| CB · CB · NB | Bo Mascoe ▲ · Kade Phillips · Graceson Littleton Warren Roberson · Hayward Howard Jr. · Wardell Mack | , |
| SS | Jelani McDonald · Jonah Williams | , |
| FS | Derek Williams Jr. · Xavier Filsaime | Flipped since Aug 8. Taaffe's old job is the closest battle on the defense. |
| Position | Projected two-deep | 2025 résumé |
|---|---|---|
| K | Gianni Spetic ▲ · Jake Collett ★ | Memphis: 14/19 FG (73.7%), long 55, 46/46 XP, big leg, modest accuracy. |
| P | Mac Chiumento ▲ · Mikey Bukauskas ★ | Florida State: 44.2 avg on 26 punts, 13 inside the 20. FSU's special teams MVP. |
| PR · KR | Ryan Niblett · Raleek Brown ▲ | Niblett: 476 punt-return yds and 2 TDs in 2025. |
Each unit's note leads with its computed 2025 percentile on a headline metric (vs. all FBS, garbage time excluded; higher = always better); the chip is our call for 2026 on a fixed four-tier scale, Strength · Lean strength · Open question · Rebuilt. Where the call disagrees with the number, the note says why, usually because the players who earned the number are gone. (No bars here on purpose: bars are for comparing two units on one metric, which is the weekly Matchup Board's job.)
Percentiles are computed by our metrics pipeline over the committed 2025 data snapshot. Chips are this report's judgment.
Fall camp opened Aug 5, a month out from the Texas State opener. Storylines below are news with sources; the analysis lives in the sections above.
| Player | Unit | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Goosby | LT | Knee (bone bruise) | Good to go for the opener, per Sarkisian at Thursday's press conference (On3, Horns247), after returning to practice Sept 1. No PPA-share impact is computable for linemen; Andre Cojoe seasoned as the swing tackle during his absence. |
| Laurence Seymore | LG | Undisclosed, minor | Good to go, per Sarkisian at Thursday's press conference (Horns247). Was limited in the first scrimmage; no long-term concern reported. |
| Samari Matthews | CB | Undisclosed | The true freshman was reported absent from early camp practices, reason undisclosed; no update since. |
| Yaheim Riley | DB | Knee (brace) | Practicing in a brace; no reported concern for the season. |
Checked Aug 26 against SI's fall camp injury tracker (latest entry Aug 17); Goosby's return to practice confirmed Sept 1 (SI). Re-checked at the Week 1 freeze (Sept 3): Goosby and Seymore cleared at Sarkisian's Thursday press conference; no other availability changes surfaced in the game-week sweep.
Corrections (Sept 3 freeze fact-check, fixed in place per the errata protocol): Ty'Anthony Smith was dismissed for "conduct detrimental to the team" (earlier wording implied an unexplained departure); Blake Gideon arrives from Georgia Tech, not Georgia; UTSA is Sept 19 and the A&M finale is Friday Nov 27 (dates were off by one); Jaime Ffrench's name and 2025 role, and Liona Lefau's two-year-starter status, were understated; Cryer now carries the portal marker; title odds are +650 tied with Oregon. Transfer stat lines quote the committed CFBD snapshots and may differ from outlet totals by bowl-game scope.
Texas went 10–3: 9–3 in the regular season, then a Citrus Bowl win over Michigan. This is the baseline the 2026 team is projected from, weekly reports link here instead of re-telling it.
Every percentile is oriented so higher = better, whichever direction the raw stat runs, a 79th-percentile "explosiveness allowed" means Texas gave up fewer big plays than 79% of FBS.
| Metric | Texas 2025 | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Off. EPA/play | 0.179 (52%) | Scoring value added per snap, the core "how efficient is this offense" stat. |
| Off. success rate | 40.5% (29%) | % of plays that stay "on schedule" (half the needed yards on 1st down, all of them by 3rd). Consistency. |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.37 (90%) | How big the successful plays are. Ceiling, not floor. |
| Line yards/carry | 2.83 (36%) | Yards on a carry credited to the line's push, not the back. |
| Def. EPA/play | 0.104 (71%) | Value allowed per snap. Lower = better defense. |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.18 (79%) | Size of the plays a defense gives up, the "big-play problem" stat. |
| Front-seven havoc | 11.2% (82%) | % of snaps where the front made a disruptive play (sack, TFL, forced fumble). |
| DB havoc | 6.7% (69%) | % of snaps where DBs made a disruptive play (INT, PBU, TFL, forced fumble). |
| Metric | Texas 2025 | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| TO margin / game | +1.08 (+14 total) | Takeaways minus giveaways per game. Beyond ±0.5, history says it snaps back. |
| Fumble margin | +5 | Fumbles recovered minus lost. Recovering a live ball is ~a coin flip, this is the luckiest stat in football. |
| INT margin | +9 | Picks made minus thrown. Partly skill (QB decisions, ballhawking DBs), partly bounce. |
This project grades its own claims, weekly reports are scored every Monday, and the model's picks live in a running prediction log. These are the preseason claims worth holding this page to, graded in the December season review with misses recorded, not buried.
| Claim | Where it's made | How it gets graded |
|---|---|---|
| 7–9 wins (SP+ reference) vs 9.5 market | Schedule Outlook | Final regular-season record vs both numbers. |
| Unit outlook chips | Unit Outlook Board | Each unit's end-of-2026 percentile vs its 2025 bar, did Strength stay strong, did Rebuilt fall, did the Open questions resolve? |
| The portal fixed the run game | Roster Ledger / Spotlights | 2026 rushing PPA percentile vs the 2025 39th. |
| Breakouts: Lockett, Winston, Jackson | Breakout Watch | Usage up meaningfully AND per-play value held, both required to count. |
| Turnover regression ≈ one win of drag on the record | Last Season in Review | 2026 TO margin (expect near zero) and whether the record undershoots record-based projections while matching efficiency-based ones. |