The call was PARTLY right: Texas 23, Missouri 20 against 34–20, the winner and Missouri's 20 exactly, Texas 11 light. The market (Texas by 3) was off by 11 and the model (by 3.2) by 10.8. It was 10–10 at the half and 20–20 after three; Texas scored the last 21 points. All three tells were RIGHT: one sack in Manning's first 20 dropbacks, Roberts at 3.5 over his first 15 carries, and five of Texas's first 10 third downs converted. The misses all went Texas's way: Manning 28 of 38 for 297 and three touchdowns against the slight Missouri chip on the secondary, the backs 22 for 101 against the full Missouri chip on the run defense, and a blocked punt and two Craig misses against the slight Missouri chip on special teams. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
Before the game we wrote down Texas 23, Missouri 20, and the game gave us Texas 34, Missouri 20, so our score prediction was PARTLY right: the right winner and Missouri's score exactly, but Texas scored 11 more than we said. It was tied at 10 at halftime and at 20 after three quarters, and Texas scored the last 21 points. All three of our early signs were right. What we got wrong all went Texas's way: Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns, Texas's running backs ran well, and Texas won the kicking game. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Six of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, three PARTLY, three WRONG, every wrong in Texas's favor. Of the six here: the Texas run defense and the Texas deep game RIGHT; the Texas line chip and the protection chip PARTLY, the Tiger front winning the stuffs and the sacks but not the game; the Tiger line chip PARTLY; the special-teams chip WRONG. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we rated 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 6 right, 3 half right and 3 WRONG, and every miss underrated Texas.
Our record so far: on the final score, 2 right, 11 partly, 3 wrong; on tells, 23 right, 22 partly, 3 wrong; on matchup edges, 84 right, 52 partly, 55 wrong. Tells are the shakiest thing we print, so read them as things to watch, not verdicts.
Margin: Texas by 14 · Line was Texas −3 Monday at DraftKings, −2.5 at DraftKings and Bovada Saturday morning · Total 54 against 43.5 Monday
Settled against the box. One contradiction: DB Graceson Littleton, doubtful by our Monday read, played, made 4 tackles and returned the clinching fumble 44 yards; the SEC's report had him probable by Friday (Burnt Orange Nation, Nov 7). WR Ryan Wingo caught 6 for 53 and DB Kade Phillips made 2 tackles, both off the report; RB Derrek Cooper caught the first touchdown. WR Cam Coleman and EDGE Colin Simmons, game-time decisions, have no stat; RB Hollywood Smothers and EDGE Richard Wesley have no stat. Missouri: RB Ahmad Hardy ran once for 3.